Brasília: Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE) published in January 2026 the definitive deforestation data for the Brazilian Amazon during 2025, revealing the loss of 11,568 square kilometers of rainforest, an area larger than the territory of Jamaica. Although the figure is below the 2019 historical peak, it represents a 12% increase compared to 2024 and puts at risk the climate targets assumed by Brazil in the Paris Agreement.

The increase in deforestation is concentrated in the states of Pará, Mato Grosso, and Rondônia. The main causes are the expansion of the agricultural frontier for soybeans and cattle ranching, illegal gold mining that contaminates rivers with mercury and destroys fragile ecosystems, and irregular settlement driven by demand for land in previously protected areas.

The Role of Science and Monitoring

Brazil operates one of the world's most advanced forest monitoring systems, the PRODES system, which processes Landsat satellite images and integrates data from optical and radar sensors. Despite this technical capability, on-the-ground enforcement remains insufficient. IBAMA, Brazil's environmental agency, operates with a budget that is one-third of what it had a decade ago in real terms.

Scientists from INPE warn that the Amazon is approaching a point of no return from which the ecosystem would begin producing less water than it needs to sustain itself, transforming into savanna. That tipping point is estimated to occur if between 20% and 25% of the original rainforest is lost; currently about 17% has been lost.

International Response

The Amazon Fund, financed mainly by Norway and Germany, announced an additional disbursement of 1.2 billion dollars to strengthen enforcement and support forest communities. The European Union has also linked access to the European market for soybeans and beef to zero-deforestation certifications, a requirement that pressures Brazilian productive sectors to adopt more sustainable practices.