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Low-income people are feeling more pressure as SNAP benefits take longer to arrive because of the long shutdown. People are spending less because they are getting less help, which is bad news for stores and grocery stores. Economists say that the pullback could hurt holiday sales and slow down the economy's growth in early 2026.

SNAP Instability Emerges as a Growing Threat to U.S. Economic Momentum

SNAP Disruptions Put Immediate Strain on Low-Income Families

Millions of people who get SNAP benefits are unsure of when or how much help they will get because the program is still shut down. Many families are saying that their budgets are tight and they are buying less food because their benefits are still delayed. Advocacy groups say that food insecurity is getting worse in many states, especially in areas where SNAP makes up a big part of the local economy. Without help from the federal government, families may have to deal with even more money problems as winter approaches.

Retailers were ready for drops as SNAP households cut back on spending.

Big grocery stores, dollar stores, and discount stores are getting ready for fewer sales as people with low incomes cut back. Experts in the field say that even a small change to SNAP payments can have a big effect on retail sales, especially in areas where a lot of people use the program. Some stores are changing how much stock they have and how they advertise to get ready for slower sales in the next few weeks. Executives said that big areas like groceries and household goods are starting to show signs of wear and tear. Foot traffic data also reveals that in regions where advantages take longer to come, people are going to stores that focus on value less. A lot of stores are now putting cost-cutting first and spending their marketing money on important items. Analysts say that if the store closes, bargain stores might not do as well in the fourth quarter as they had hoped.

Economists say that if SNAP instability keeps up, it might have a bigger effect on the market.

Economists say that if people with low incomes keep spending less, changes to SNAP benefits could have a big effect on the economy as a whole. Cutting payments to these families slows down the economy right away because they usually spend the money right away. Experts say that the slowdown could last until the first quarter of 2026, especially for businesses that rely on services that help people spend money, like stores and restaurants. Some experts are worried that things could get worse if benefits keep being put off. This could have an impact on jobs in the service and retail industries. Having less money to spend could also hurt small businesses that rely on low-income families to come in often. If demand goes down, businesses might be able to cut back on advertising and inventory costs, according to financial experts. The state might also get less tax money if sales go down.

Experts say that quick action on policy is needed to bring back stability and keep the economy from slowing down in the long run. Because the federal government isn't giving clear directions, the market is more likely to drop even more. If more people don't pay back their loans, it could become harder to get loans. This would make things a lot worse for places that are already having a hard time. Economists are worried that the whole economy could slow down if the issues with SNAP aren't fixed quickly.

“Economists say SNAP instability could spark a wider economic slowdown as low-income spending drops sharply. The longer delays continue, the greater the risk to Q1 2026 growth.”

As SNAP benefits are delayed, low-income families are having to cut back a lot. This has economists worried about a broader slowdown in the U.S. economy. Retailers and service businesses are already feeling the pressure as essential spending goes down. If disruptions keep happening, analysts say that the drop in consumer activity could last until the first quarter of 2026 and slow down the economy as a whole..

Outlook: High Risk Until Policy Clarity Returns

Analysts say that consumer spending will keep changing until authorities make it clear when full SNAP benefits will be restored. If the federal government starts working again soon, the grocery and retail sectors may recover. But if it takes longer, millions of households may have to deal with further financial stress. Businesses are getting ready for a possible slowdown in the short-term economy because low-income consumers are among of the most active spenders. Everyone is still watching Washington, where talks will decide if this new risk is just a short-term problem or a long-term economic one.


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James Thornton

James Thornton is a U.S. business reporter covering markets, technology, and economic policy.

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