BUSINESS

U.S. Retailers Expect Record Holiday Sales as NRF Forecasts First-Ever $1 Trillion Season

The National Retail Federation says that holiday sales will reach a record $1 trillion this year because eager shoppers are taking advantage of early discounts and strong consumer demand.

BY RILEY CARTER

NOVEMBER 7, 2025

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TheThe National Retail Federation (NRF) said on Thursday that it expects U.S. Christmas sales to top $1 trillion for the first time, despite worries about inflation, interest rates, and tighter household budgets. This means a good year-end for retailers.

Experts from the NRF say that the record forecast is due to big stores' aggressive marketing at the start of the season, rising wages, and steady consumer spending. The prediction includes money spent on both online and in-store sales in November and December.

As the busiest shopping season approaches, retail experts say the outlook has improved. This is because there are more ways to shop online, better supply chain management, and early Black Friday sales. There is a lot of demand for toys, clothes, electronics, and household goods, so online sales are likely to be the main reason for the gains.

“Consumers remain incredibly resilient,” said Jack Kleinhenz, NRF’s chief economist. “Even with financial pressures, American households are prioritizing holiday spending and responding to deep discounts.”

The sales at big stores like Walmart, Target, and Amazon have already gone up in the first two weeks of November. Some of these companies have also said that the demand for seasonal goods and personalized bundles is higher than they thought it would be.

Retailers Boost Inventory and Expand Hiring Ahead of Surge

Retailers all over the country have extended their seasonal hiring plans to get ready for more foot traffic and a rise in online orders. According to the NRF, U.S. retailers are expected to hire between 350,000 and 450,000 temporary workers through the end of the year. This is about the same as before the pandemic.

Logistics companies say they are getting ready for one of the busiest shipping cycles in ten years. Major ports say that freight is moving more smoothly than it has in the past few years. UPS and FedEx have added weekend delivery services and built temporary distribution centers.

Polls of consumers show that they are becoming more frugal, but they are still willing to spend money on things like TVs, laptops, and appliances when they are on sale. However, experts in retail say that after the holidays, buying may go down because of high credit card debt and rising interest rates.

Nevertheless, business executives say the $1 trillion milestone would be a major vote of confidence in the retail industry and the economy as a whole.

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RILEY CARTER

Riley Carter writes about business, finance, and the economy, bringing readers insights into market movements, industry shifts, and corporate leadership.